The Horse Stall Theory

Opportunity brief

Two pages a banker can finish

Adam Thompson. Conservative case. NASS 2025 fiber utilized value is $13,453,000. One 12×12 nets $1,081 a year. Saratoga 1,820 stalls × $1,081 = $1,967,420.

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Interior of a South Dakota hemp decortication plant

Summary

NASS 2025 fiber utilized value is $13,453,000. That is $0.20/lb and $620/acre on 21,693 harvested acres. Dakota Hemp already sells the inner stalk as stall bedding on a published domestic ladder ($16–$20 per 30 lb; $0.60/lb hurd). One 12×12 stall, conservative, 12×12 vs pine, Dakota multi-pallet bag price, nets $1,081/year after material, labor, haul, and half the compost. Saratoga 1,820 published stalls (90 barns) are $1,967,420 of barn-side net (1,820 × $1,081). That is a plant-scale offtake letter from one backside. Full conversion of the modeled stalled herd is 416,444 fiber acres — 19× the 21,693 acres harvested in 2025. The planning number is 10 percent: 41,644 acres.

Full conversion acres (not a forecast)

416,444

10% conversion acres (planning)

41,644

Current US fiber acres

21,693

First mills

  1. Inner Bluegrass Fiber Hub — Lexington, KY (proposed, score 98). Highest-value equine density on earth plus Kentucky's 4,800 planted hemp acres (2025, 2nd nationally).
  2. Saratoga Backstretch Plant — Saratoga Springs, NY (proposed, score 96). Saratoga 1,820 published stalls (90 barns). One meet's bedding is a plant-scale offtake contract.
  3. Marion County Training Hub — Ocala, FL (proposed, score 94). Ocala is the training capital — thousands of stalls that never appear in racetrack backside counts.
  4. Parker County Equine Mill — Weatherford, TX (proposed, score 93). Texas planted 6,700 hemp acres in 2025 (1st nationally) and holds the largest horse herd.
  5. Dakota Hemp — Wakonda, SD (existing, score 91). Sells cleaned hurd as bedding on a published bag ladder. Operating mill at 45304 302nd St, Wakonda, SD 57073. Canadian Greenfield hemp train.
  6. Oklahoma City Remington Hub — Oklahoma City, OK (proposed, score 88). 326k horses (widely cited 4th nationally) + 3,000 planted hemp acres (2025) + Remington Park.

Ask

Offtake first, steel second. A letter on published stall counts (Saratoga, Churchill) plus a grower contract at a price that clears Dakota’s multi-pallet floor. Capex for a regional mill is a decorticator (~$229,000 list) plus building, bagging, and working capital — not the machine sticker. IMARC’s 15–25% net assumes the bid exists. This brief is the bid.